Recast Methodology

Why “Brand Effects” are so difficult to measure in MMM

Many people want to know what the long-term effects of their marketing are. The theory is that advertising today may boost brand awareness which might have long-term positive impacts for the business. Often, they want to know how Recast thinks about these long-term impacts. Unfortunately, we believe that it is practically impossible for an econometric …

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“Impressions” are misleading in marketing mix modeling

At Recast we always use spend — never impressions — to represent channel activity in our marketing mix model. We do not care how many gross ratings points (GRPs) your TV vendor claims to have delivered or how many impressions Facebook says you got on your ad. We don’t care about clicks or even the …

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Why Recast Doesn’t Control for COVID

Occasionally, prospective customers react with shock when we tell them that we don’t “control for the COVID pandemic”. “The pandemic really impacted our business, so how can your model be accurate if you don’t control for Covid?” they ask. The answer is simple: Recast models changes in the macro-environment, but doesn’t control for them. This …

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Being Thoughtful About “What’s My Email ROI?” 

For many businesses, email programs are a huge revenue generator. For every $1 marketers spend on email marketing, they receive $36 in return, according to 2,000 marketers who responded to Litmus’ 2020 State of Email Survey. Emails play the important role of nursing customers along their buying journey, drive retention, and cross-sell and up-sell customers …

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You’re probably modeling seasonality the wrong way

Nearly every business has an annual cycle: seasons where the business waxes or wanes, or specific dates like Cyber Monday, Memorial Day, or Mother’s Day, which see enormous spikes in sales. Imagine you have a business that sells hot wings — when do you think the busiest time of the year would be? Football season …

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Introduction to Bayesian Methods for MMM

Introduction Note: this post was developed in partnership with Mike Taylor over at Vexpower where they’re working to educate marketers on how to do effective media mix modeling. This post gets a bit into the weeds, so if you want a more straightforward overview, definitely go check out the companion post over there. At Recast we use Bayesian techniques …

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