At Recast I have the privilege and challenge of introducing advanced statistical concepts to people who have a strong desire to be more data driven, but who do not have much of a background in formal statistics. While word has gotten out that “statistical significance” isn’t all it’s cracked up …
Disclaimer: This blog post was written by an external contributor about Uber’s open-source Orbit library for time series forecasting and its applications to marketing mix modeling. The approach laid out in this document is not reflective of how Recast approaches time series forecasting and modeling time-varying effects. The actual model …
Occasionally, prospective customers react with shock when we tell them that we don’t “control for the COVID pandemic”. “The pandemic really impacted our business, so how can your model be accurate if you don’t control for Covid?” they ask. The answer is simple: Recast models changes in the macro-environment, but …
For many businesses, email programs are a huge revenue generator. For every $1 marketers spend on email marketing, they receive $36 in return, according to 2,000 marketers who responded to Litmus’ 2020 State of Email Survey. Emails play the important role of nursing customers along their buying journey, drive retention, …
Disclaimer: This blog post was written by an external contributor about Google’s open source marketing mix modeling tool LightweightMMM. The approach laid out in this document is not reflective of how Recast approaches marketing mix modeling. The actual model specification can be found in the technical model specification. After Apple’s …
Marketing Mix Modeling (MMM) has been around since the 1960s, where it was used to correlate spikes and dips in sales to marketing activity. There has been a recent resurgence of interest in marketing mix modeling, as consumers increasingly opt out of digital tracking and digital-first brands mature to offline …
Marketing Mix Modeling Software: Build vs Buy Calculator Read More
At Recast, we often speak with practitioners who are trying to build their own MMM in-house. While we think there are great reasons to use a tool like Recast instead of building in-house, many people want to try it themselves before committing to working with a partner. In this post, …
Marketing mix modeling is hard. Trust us. When we were starting Recast, we thought it’d be easy: we’d use some off-the-shelf Bayesian time-series models and six months later we’d have a top-shelf model. But unfortunately, it didn’t work like that. It took us multiple years of PhD-level research time to …
In 2017 Nielson conducted a study of 500 advertising campaigns across all major media platforms: TV, digital, magazines and radio. They found that a remarkable 47% of the campaign’s contribution to sales was attributable to Creative. A further 15% came from Brand, which we can think of as the culmination …
Creative performance drives 47% of sales: why is it missing from most models? Read More
Most people aren’t aware that Facebook (Meta) invented a new ‘accuracy’ metric. Their own documentation calls it a ‘major innovation’ of Robyn, their Marketing Mix Modeling (MMM) library. It’s both genius and controversial. The metric we’re talking about is “Decomp RSSD” and it’s a measure for how much the model …
