Marketing Mix Modeling (MMM) has been around since the 1960s, where it was used to correlate spikes and dips in sales to marketing activity. There has been a recent resurgence of interest in marketing mix modeling, as consumers increasingly opt out of digital tracking and digital-first brands mature to offline channels. We’re now living through …
Marketing Mix Modeling Software: Build vs Buy Calculator Read More »
At Recast, we often speak with practitioners who are trying to build their own MMM in-house. While we think there are great reasons to use a tool like Recast instead of building in-house, many people want to try it themselves before committing to working with a partner. In this post, I’ll lay out the check-list …
Marketing mix modeling is hard. Trust us. When we were starting Recast, we thought it’d be easy: we’d use some off-the-shelf Bayesian time-series models and six months later we’d have a top-shelf model. But unfortunately, it didn’t work like that. It took us multiple years of PhD-level research time to get to a model that …
In 2017 Nielson conducted a study of 500 advertising campaigns across all major media platforms: TV, digital, magazines and radio. They found that a remarkable 47% of the campaign’s contribution to sales was attributable to Creative. A further 15% came from Brand, which we can think of as the culmination of past creative efforts. Despite …
Creative performance drives 47% of sales: why is it missing from most models? Read More »
Most people aren’t aware that Facebook (Meta) invented a new ‘accuracy’ metric. Their own documentation calls it a ‘major innovation’ of Robyn, their Marketing Mix Modeling (MMM) library. It’s both genius and controversial. The metric we’re talking about is “Decomp RSSD” and it’s a measure for how much the model agrees with your current budget …
Facebook (Meta) bet on Marketing Mix Modeling (MMM) to save their ads business, after Apple’s iOS14 update gave users the right to choose if they’ll accept tracking. Because it uses aggregate data, MMM doesn’t need to invade anyone’s privacy to work, so it’s future-proof to any changes in the rules, whether they come from Apple …
Nearly every business has an annual cycle: seasons where the business waxes or wanes, or specific dates like Cyber Monday, Memorial Day, or Mother’s Day, which see enormous spikes in sales. Imagine you have a business that sells hot wings — when do you think the busiest time of the year would be? Football season …
You’re probably modeling seasonality the wrong way Read More »
Introduction Note: this post was developed in partnership with Mike Taylor over at Vexpower where they’re working to educate marketers on how to do effective media mix modeling. This post gets a bit into the weeds, so if you want a more straightforward overview, definitely go check out the companion post over there. At Recast we use Bayesian techniques …
With the rise of e-commerce, online advertising, and the ability for companies to perform fine-grained digital attribution at the customer level, media-mix modeling has fallen in popularity and many marketers of the newest generation are not familiar with this very important tool for optimizing a marketing program. In this blog post I’ll review the history …
