It’s tempting to evaluate a channel by its average ROI. If you spend $100,000 on Facebook and generate $200,000 in revenue, that 2× return looks great. But average ROI is a backward‑looking measure. It tells you how the last $100,000 performed — not how the next dollar will perform. To …
Average vs marginal ROI in MMM: when to use each (and why both matter for your budget) Read More »
How do you make sure your model doesn’t spit out negative ROIs on channels that are clearly working? Or attribute three times more revenue than your business actually drove? Or collapse when two correlated channels move together? These are the kinds of problems priors are meant to solve. They’re one …
What Are Priors in MMM – And Why They’re Difficult to Get Right (But You Need To) Read More »
The board just asked for ROI improvements by next quarter. Your growth is flat. Pressure is rising. Budgets are under review. Marketing teams tend to go one of two ways here. Some spiral into what we call the Inaction and Panic Cycle. Others take control through a system of Action …
The Inaction and Panic Cycle: How Poor Measurement Traps Marketing Teams Read More »
Media mix modeling introduces statistical rigor, causal inference, and a more accurate picture of what’s driving growth across your marketing channels. But it also introduces uncertainty — and if that measurement uncertainty isn’t framed correctly, it can feel like confusion rather than clarity. That’s why so many MMM efforts stall …
How to Talk About Uncertainty in MMM Without Losing Executive Trust Read More »
More and more brands are running lift tests. That’s a good thing. Incrementality experimentation methods are not that complicated — and you don’t want them to be. The value of a structured experiment is that interpreting the results should be straightforward. But in practice, we see some common ways teams …
The Most Common Mistakes Marketing Teams Make when Interpreting Lift Test Results Read More »
Attribution systems break at scale because they can’t measure causality. As businesses grow more complex, they often fall into what we call the ‘inaction and panic cycle.’ This article explains why attribution fails – and how to replace it with an incrementality system built for modern growth. Attribution is not …
Why Attribution Breaks at Scale (And What to Do Instead) Read More »
Many businesses face tough challenges when it comes to measuring marketing incrementality because the nature of their product implies conversions that happen at multiple stages. Marketing activity drives new users or customers to the first stage, and then some proportion of those customers “convert” into a subsequent stage. This may …
Every few years, a new media channel rises and leaves marketers wondering how it fits in their current channel mix, how to test it, and how to measure it. Think about TikTok in its early days – few brands had spent on the platform, and there was no historical data …
In today’s rapidly evolving retail environment, it can be a real challenge for omnichannel brands to measure the incremental impact of their marketing efforts. The modern customer journey spans multiple touchpoints — a consumer might browse for a product category online, see a TV ad, get driven to an owned/D2C …
How Omnichannel Brands Leverage Marketing Mix Modeling (MMM) Read More »
We see a lot of media mix modeling RFPs here at Recast. Unfortunately, a lot of them don’t emphasize what we, as practitioners, think is most important – not to us, but to them as a brand. There are 3 elements that should be on every MMM RFP: Each element …
What should be in your Marketing Mix Modeling (MMM) Request For Proposal (RFP)? Read More »
