Your marketing performance doesn’t live in a silo and it’s not independent of external factors. One of those that will impact it is GDP (gross domestic product). But that brings many questions to marketers: If our marketing is doing well during a period of GDP growth, is it because our […]
Why You Need to Stop Controlling for GDP Growth (and what to do instead) Read More »
Marketing Mix Modeling (MMM) is hard. The core difficulty is that MMM is trying to solve a causal inference problem where there is no ground truth to compare the model results with. There is no ground truth source that can tell us what the true incrementality of TV is as
Validation Through Testing Read More »
MMM is about Causation not just Correlation At the highest level, the idea behind MMM is to look at the correlation between marketing activity on one side and business results (revenue, new customers, leads, etc.) on the other. However, we don’t just want correlation. We want to actually estimate causation,
Is Recast Just a Regression? Read More »
Updated: August, 2024 Many brands want to know what the long-term effects of their marketing efforts are. The theory is that advertising today may boost brand awareness, which in turn, might have long-term positive impacts for the business. Wanting to understand these long-term effects is good and important. However, measuring
Why “Brand Effects” are so difficult to measure in MMM Read More »
Occasionally, prospective customers react with shock when we tell them that we don’t “control for the COVID pandemic”. “The pandemic really impacted our business, so how can your model be accurate if you don’t control for Covid?” they ask. The answer is simple: Recast models changes in the macro-environment, but
Why Recast Doesn’t Control for COVID Read More »
Elon Musk believes we live in a simulation. His argument goes: “If you assume any rate of improvement at all, games will eventually be indistinguishable from reality” — Elon Musk, Founder PayPal, Tesla, SpaceX What are the chances someone beat us to it? With the potential for many simulated realities,
What does “Bayesian” mean and why is it better? Read More »
Introduction Note: this post was developed in partnership with Mike Taylor over at Vexpower where they’re working to educate marketers on how to do effective media mix modeling. This post gets a bit into the weeds, so if you want a more straightforward overview, definitely go check out the companion post over there. Bayesian
Introduction to Bayesian Methods for MMM Read More »
